For the international film industry, the opening of the 78th Venice International Film Festival is accompanied by equal measures of promise and trepidation. The promise comes from Venice’s blockbuster lineup — from Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic Dune, Ridley Scott’s period actioner The Last Duel and David Gordon Green’s horror sequel Halloween Kills to the latest from art-house champions Pablo Larraín (Spencer), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Pedro Almodóvar (whose Parallel Mothers opens the fest) — which could get film fans of all stripes excited about going back to the movies.
The trepidation comes from concerns that the resurgent coronavirus, particularly its highly contagious delta variant, could force theaters, which have begun to reopen worldwide, back into lockdown.
“Distribution has come back, but business is a lot softer than it was; no one is sure what the future of theatrical looks like right now,” says Stefano Massenzi, head of acquisitions at Italian distributor Lucky Red. “I’m excited going into Venice — and optimistic — but a lot is still unclear.”
The murkiest aspect of the international film business remains traditional theatrical distribution. Reduced-capacity requirements in many territories has kept box office down — results in the U.K. and Japan have been roughly half their pre-COVID levels — and uncertainty surrounding the delta variant is making it harder for buyers to know what to expect from a future cinema release. France, the first major European country to allow full-capacity cinemas, saw box office quickly return to pre-pandemic levels only to fall back again in July following a new law requiring proof of vaccination for access to all indoor activities.
“It’s all very different from country to country, and that can have an impact on prices,” says Jean-Christophe Simon, CEO of production and sales group Films Boutique. “For very commercial projects, there is still a very strong market, but for more art house films, we have a problem of a backlog because so many distributors have films they bought one to two years ago that they still haven’t released.”